Scenario Development

Scenario development is an instrument used for drafting a future-proof strategy. It is used to comprehensively depict various future scenarios and to take these into account in strategic decision-making. Scenario development assists in making decisions not by expecting a desired or probable future but by being prepared for possible worse, better or unexpected alternatives. In this way, environmental influences and known, but not definitively foreseeable, trends can be included in the strategy development. Likewise, potential specific shocks can be considered in the scenario development. In order to prepare the future scenarios, quantitative prognoses and qualitative assessments can be combined in order to represent future developments systematically.